Delphi Process

The Delphi method implies an iterative consultation of experts. Each participant supplements a questionnaire and receives then a feedback on all his/her answers. In the light of this information, it fills out once again the questionnaire; this time, by explaining each one of its opinions which strongly diverge from those of the other participants. These explanations will prove very useful for the others. Moreover, it can change opinion, according to its own evaluation of new furnished information by the other participants. This process is repeated as much once than it is necessary it, the idea being that the whole of the group can examine dissenting opinions based on privileged or rare information.

Consequently, in the majority of the Delphi processes, the degree of consensus increases with each turn.

Traditionally organized by mail, other alternatives of Delphi methods can take place on line or face to face. In original the Delphi process, the main features of this method were 1) the structuring of flow of information, 2) the feedback given to the participants and 3) the anonymity of the participants. In a Delphi face to face, anonymity disappears. Another alternative: the Delphi Policy, whose main objective consists in exposing all the options and opinions concerning a topic and the main arguments for and against to the regard of these opinions.

So the Delphi process is used to forecast the success of an idea using the opinion of experts. However, how many times experts predicted the success of ideas and they are wrong, what might be the result? Many times ideas are pursued for long period of time and commitment can be made on a unsuccessful one.

Sackman (1974) criticized the Delphi method for being unscientific and Armstrong (1978) criticized it for its inaccuracy (as cited in Illinois Institute of Technology, n.d.). The general complaints against the Delphi method were summarized by Makridakis and Wheelright (1978) in terms of: (a) a low level of reliability in the collective opinion which leads to a dependency on experts selected; (b) ambiguity in the questionnaires can taint the results; and (c) it is difficult to assess the degree of expertise incorporated into the forecast (ibid.). Martino (1978) lists six major concerns about the Delphi method (ibid.):
1. Discounting the future: Future (and past) happenings are not as important as
the current ones, therefore one may have a tendency to discount the future
events.
2. The simplification urge: Experts tend to judge the future of events in
isolation from other developments.
3. Illusory expertise: Some of the experts may be poor forecasters.
4. Sloppy execution: There are many ways to do a poor job.
5. Format bias: It should be recognized that the format of the questionnaire
might be unsuitable to some potential societal participants.
6. Manipulation of Delphi: The responses can be altered by the monitors in the
hope of moving the next round responses in a desired direction.

Ref: http://amynelson.efoliomn.com/uploads/rm502epaper.pdf
http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook.pdf

Forecast From Technology's Promise Textbook

When I was reading the book, chapter 3, Globalization Goes High Tech: A worrisome World of Abundance got my attention. The author explained how people lived just 200 years ago before the comfortable lives we have today and how today economic system is is based on knowledge and knowledge creates abundance when shared. He explained about seven technologies that are likely to transform economies over the next 10 to 15 years. These technologies include designed materials, mass customization, micromachines, modular homes, nanotechnology, smart robots, and smart sensors. Thinking about all the technology around us and how it is improving quickly, I agree with the author that in the next 10 to 15 years technology will transform the economy. The other day, I was watching television and there was a show about technologies in China. I couldn’t believe what I saw. One of the things is a booth, a person steps in and in front of him there is a screen. On the screen the person can read about his health issues. Another technology is about crossing the road. Instead of having the sign that say walk and don’t walk, when it is safe to cross the road, arrows will show on the ground. Let’s not forget the robots. Robots now can help in surgeries and do many other things.

Ref:
Halal, W.E. (2008), Technologies Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society. Hampshire, Great Britain: Palgrave McMillan

Futurists Prediction

Green energy is going to be in every single type of industry, all governments in industrialized countries are pushing for it. I was surprised and amazed what can be invented for green energy. The article I read from cnet.com talks about a new type of green energy prototype gadget built by RCA. It is a handheld energy converter, it catches WiFi signal and converts it to DC power. The device is called Airnergy, the device is very small and has an antenna that catches and collect the signal and stores it in an internal battery. OhGizmo reported from an RCA representative that they were able to charge a BlackBerry from 30 percent to full charge in about 90 minutes using the ambient Wi-Fi signal at CES2010. RCA is hoping that in the future this type of technology can be implemented for cell phone; the main goal is to eliminate batteries for cell phone and have this type of gadget replace it. However, a question can be asked here, is there enough energy emitted from a Wi-Fi transmitter to allow the capture of the signal and convert it to DC power? The amount of RF energy emitted is less than the Volts x Amps of the hotspot which is on the order of something less than 12 watts and a cell phone requires in general about 5 watts to charge. The amount of energy that the device being charged by the WiFi hotspot is directly proportional to the amount of RF signal intercepted by the device at whatever distance it is from the WiFi hotspot. 1/1000 is the area intercepted on the order of the amount transmitted when at a distance of 4 feet from the WiFi hotspot. I might be wrong, I am thinking from a mathematical point of vu, but it would be very cool if it can be used for home energy to monitor system that communicates and powers the sensors with WiFi. It’ll allow to measure flow sensors for water, air, temperature and gas.

Reference:
http://www.ohgizmo.com/2010/01/09/ces2010-rca-airnergy-charger-harvests-electricity-from-wifi/



Ref: http://ces.cnet.com/?categoryId=10406866&tag=rtcol

I found this video in youtube and I believe it allows us to think about the evolution of technology in the last 100 years and I wanted to share it will all of you.

Animoto Innovation Video

Create your own video slideshow at animoto.com.

Podcast highlights of my Innovation Project

The hope of having a microchip for the human brain has been my dream for many years now, but no one so far was able to concretize the idea. Hopefully in the next 10 to 15 years this dream will become reality. The objective of the micro-chip is to be implemented in the brain for people that have nerve damage. The cells of the brain are the only ones that do not regenerate, so if damaged as a result of a physical accident of disease such as Alzheimer, the human brain is incapable to reproduce these nerves. This micro-ship will work exactly as a microprocessor works in a computer, data is added to the micro-ship allowing the brain to do its functions and the human can have a normal life once again. Keeeepppppp Dreammmmmmiinnngggg.

Gabcast! Week6-GabCast-Innovation Project Intro #1

Cool Web Tool 2

A cool Web tool is Jing from TechSmith corporation, this software is free and can be used for personal need, education, work, etc… The software allows capturing screen and sharing them with others. Professors and students can use this sort of visual communication to improve understanding, clarity, efficiency and it can be very much fun. The beauty about Jing is that it is free and you can capture images, and can create videos (also called screencasts) and it’s easy to use for none computer savvy. It also has a professional version which cost just $14.95 per year which is still pretty cheap compared to camtasia . Another advantage of Jing is that it is compatible to PCs and Macs. One disadvantage of Jing is that the videos length is maximized at 3 minutes. I love it personally and I use it very much when teaching online courses, it helps my students very much to follow the instructions to do their homework.

Reference:
http://www.techsmith.com/jing/

SDP Case Study

How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and Power to Construct the Future in Co-Laboratories of Democracy textbook is very interesting in the way it present the Structured Design Process. The book contains many case studies that are very interesting in exposing various steps on how to examine and complete projects in a very simple way.

Case study in chapter 17, “International Boundary-Spanning Dialogues” “Project-Successful Cypriot Women” was very interesting to me. I am familiar with the ongoing problem in Cyprus. The objective of the case study is to put together from different parties (Marios Michaelides and Antigone Petropoulos) woman from both countries (Greece & Turkey) in a bi-communal workshops in a neutral zone separating Greece & Turkey. The goal is to bring a vision of peace, which might not solve the issues but might a least open their mind and hopefully bring peace in the future.

Political, economical and cultural forces affected the outcome of this activity. Greece was colonized by Turkey (Ottoman Empire) for more than 400 years. Of course, this was not the first nor the last time that Greeks and Turks came head to head in armed conflict. From the 14th century until the most recent Turkish invasion and occupation of Cyprus in 1974, the two countries have battled over and over again. Now that open armed conflicts have subsided, Greeks and Turks have found a new area of conflict to focus on; being the country of primary investment importance in Southeastern Europe.

From an economical point of vu, of course, one might consider this an easy call since we read of Greece’s financial woes every other day. Greece’s problems are deep-rooted and these issues have directly spelled out as gains for Turkey. This trend will likely continue, despite Athens’ promises to shore up their financial situation since these problems are much more fundamental than what can be solved by sound governmental financial policies.

Greece and Turkey both rely heavily on agricultural exports, with olives, cotton, and tobacco being main crops. Both countries also harvest dairy goods, fruit, and fish. Many of these good are exported throughout Europe and the world. Both counties are also heavily involved in the textiles and mining industries as well, also major exports.

From a cultural stand point, both nations have a lot of things in common. Traditional clothes, traditional dances and music, food culture, language even the physical appearances of the people are so much alike that it is hard to distinguish one from the other. Unfortunately, the citizens of these two countries are prejudiced against each other. It is always imposed on people that “the other” is “the enemy”.

Applying the SDP the woman created 106 qualities of success and selected 24 as the main questions. From these questions and Influence tree for successful women qualities (Successful Cypriot Women) was created (shown in Figure 17.1 on page 117 of Christakis book). From the tree a video was created, and built a relationship between Greece & Turkey in Cyprus. I strongly believe that what was accomplished is extraordinary for the circumstances and the time available, I think many other meeting can be built from this one and hopefully will bring peace between these countries.

Cool Web 2.0 Tool

Need help with your search for documents for your dissertation; you can use the “Ultimate Research Assistant”.

It is a different type of search engine, different from Google, Yahoo, Bing, etc… How it works: you can type the name of any subject you’re looking for and choose different search options such Wikipedia, Government, Military, Non Profit, Educational, of just basic Internet Resources. It doesn’t give different documents, it actually reads the underline document and extracts key concepts which kind give you a better organization to the research. I really liked it and I am positive I’ll be using this search engine for my thesis.

Refence:
http://ultimate-research-assistant.com/

Youtube link:

Future Technologies in Our Everyday Use

After reading the Horizon Report 2010 I am feeling pretty confident that in the next couple of decades hard copy textbooks will be way gone and if someone has a copy people will ask are you OK!

It is weird how there’re still many people (students) that prefer very much hard copy textbooks instead of electronic copies. My wife one is one of those people, she can’t study and comprehend the material from an electronic textbook, she must have a hard copy textbook. I am totally the opposite, I prefer much more electronic copies, it help me focus much easier when reading and we can save a lot or trees :).

http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2010-Horizon-Report.pdf

Why do we need security in industry!

The main reason we have an IT security industry is because IT products and services aren't secured by default. If workstations were pre-secure against viruses, then we won’t need any antivirus products. If poor network traffic couldn't be used to attack workstations, there will be no need to purchase a firewall. If buffer overflows didn’t exist anymore, there will be no need to purchase products to protect against their effects. If the IT products when purchased had built in security, there’re won’t be need to spend billions every year making them secure.