Delphi Process

The Delphi method implies an iterative consultation of experts. Each participant supplements a questionnaire and receives then a feedback on all his/her answers. In the light of this information, it fills out once again the questionnaire; this time, by explaining each one of its opinions which strongly diverge from those of the other participants. These explanations will prove very useful for the others. Moreover, it can change opinion, according to its own evaluation of new furnished information by the other participants. This process is repeated as much once than it is necessary it, the idea being that the whole of the group can examine dissenting opinions based on privileged or rare information.

Consequently, in the majority of the Delphi processes, the degree of consensus increases with each turn.

Traditionally organized by mail, other alternatives of Delphi methods can take place on line or face to face. In original the Delphi process, the main features of this method were 1) the structuring of flow of information, 2) the feedback given to the participants and 3) the anonymity of the participants. In a Delphi face to face, anonymity disappears. Another alternative: the Delphi Policy, whose main objective consists in exposing all the options and opinions concerning a topic and the main arguments for and against to the regard of these opinions.

So the Delphi process is used to forecast the success of an idea using the opinion of experts. However, how many times experts predicted the success of ideas and they are wrong, what might be the result? Many times ideas are pursued for long period of time and commitment can be made on a unsuccessful one.

Sackman (1974) criticized the Delphi method for being unscientific and Armstrong (1978) criticized it for its inaccuracy (as cited in Illinois Institute of Technology, n.d.). The general complaints against the Delphi method were summarized by Makridakis and Wheelright (1978) in terms of: (a) a low level of reliability in the collective opinion which leads to a dependency on experts selected; (b) ambiguity in the questionnaires can taint the results; and (c) it is difficult to assess the degree of expertise incorporated into the forecast (ibid.). Martino (1978) lists six major concerns about the Delphi method (ibid.):
1. Discounting the future: Future (and past) happenings are not as important as
the current ones, therefore one may have a tendency to discount the future
events.
2. The simplification urge: Experts tend to judge the future of events in
isolation from other developments.
3. Illusory expertise: Some of the experts may be poor forecasters.
4. Sloppy execution: There are many ways to do a poor job.
5. Format bias: It should be recognized that the format of the questionnaire
might be unsuitable to some potential societal participants.
6. Manipulation of Delphi: The responses can be altered by the monitors in the
hope of moving the next round responses in a desired direction.

Ref: http://amynelson.efoliomn.com/uploads/rm502epaper.pdf
http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook.pdf

Forecast From Technology's Promise Textbook

When I was reading the book, chapter 3, Globalization Goes High Tech: A worrisome World of Abundance got my attention. The author explained how people lived just 200 years ago before the comfortable lives we have today and how today economic system is is based on knowledge and knowledge creates abundance when shared. He explained about seven technologies that are likely to transform economies over the next 10 to 15 years. These technologies include designed materials, mass customization, micromachines, modular homes, nanotechnology, smart robots, and smart sensors. Thinking about all the technology around us and how it is improving quickly, I agree with the author that in the next 10 to 15 years technology will transform the economy. The other day, I was watching television and there was a show about technologies in China. I couldn’t believe what I saw. One of the things is a booth, a person steps in and in front of him there is a screen. On the screen the person can read about his health issues. Another technology is about crossing the road. Instead of having the sign that say walk and don’t walk, when it is safe to cross the road, arrows will show on the ground. Let’s not forget the robots. Robots now can help in surgeries and do many other things.

Ref:
Halal, W.E. (2008), Technologies Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society. Hampshire, Great Britain: Palgrave McMillan

Futurists Prediction

Green energy is going to be in every single type of industry, all governments in industrialized countries are pushing for it. I was surprised and amazed what can be invented for green energy. The article I read from cnet.com talks about a new type of green energy prototype gadget built by RCA. It is a handheld energy converter, it catches WiFi signal and converts it to DC power. The device is called Airnergy, the device is very small and has an antenna that catches and collect the signal and stores it in an internal battery. OhGizmo reported from an RCA representative that they were able to charge a BlackBerry from 30 percent to full charge in about 90 minutes using the ambient Wi-Fi signal at CES2010. RCA is hoping that in the future this type of technology can be implemented for cell phone; the main goal is to eliminate batteries for cell phone and have this type of gadget replace it. However, a question can be asked here, is there enough energy emitted from a Wi-Fi transmitter to allow the capture of the signal and convert it to DC power? The amount of RF energy emitted is less than the Volts x Amps of the hotspot which is on the order of something less than 12 watts and a cell phone requires in general about 5 watts to charge. The amount of energy that the device being charged by the WiFi hotspot is directly proportional to the amount of RF signal intercepted by the device at whatever distance it is from the WiFi hotspot. 1/1000 is the area intercepted on the order of the amount transmitted when at a distance of 4 feet from the WiFi hotspot. I might be wrong, I am thinking from a mathematical point of vu, but it would be very cool if it can be used for home energy to monitor system that communicates and powers the sensors with WiFi. It’ll allow to measure flow sensors for water, air, temperature and gas.

Reference:
http://www.ohgizmo.com/2010/01/09/ces2010-rca-airnergy-charger-harvests-electricity-from-wifi/



Ref: http://ces.cnet.com/?categoryId=10406866&tag=rtcol

I found this video in youtube and I believe it allows us to think about the evolution of technology in the last 100 years and I wanted to share it will all of you.